Kenny Rogers’ late 1970s country and western hit The Gambler comes to mind regarding the Springboks coaching group for this one as they have weighed up holding or folding and decided instead to push all their chips into the middle.
When South Africa’s team selection landed on Thursday morning, it was not the decision to rip out and replace the half-back partnership – normally a call that would have dominated discussion – that seemed brave.
Instead it was the balance of the bench. Willie Le Roux is on one end – the only back riding the pine – while the other is weighed down with seven forwards.
bbc
In 1968 when replacements were first introduced to rugby, they existed in case of injury.
South Africa’s subs have been selected in spite of the risk of injury.
In the most influential positions on the pitch, they have no specialist cover.
Faf de Klerk is the only scrum-half in the matchday squad. Handre Pollard is the only fly-half. There is no ball-carrying midfield option should Damian de Allende or Jesse Kriel go off. Even among the forwards, they are relying on a 37-year-old back-rower – Deon Fourie – dredging up hooking skills he thought he had left behind years ago to cover the number two shirt.
It was extraordinary when South Africa did similar against Ireland in the pool stage. Then it was seen as a throw-away show of strength, in a game the Springboks could afford to lose.
On the biggest stage, in the highest-stake game, in the modern destruction-derby era though, it is bold, bordering on reckless.
The risks are massive. The contingencies – Cheslin Kolbe reprising a scrum-half role he last played on the Sevens circuit, full-backs Le Roux or Damian Willemse stepping into fly-half, back row Kwagga Smith covering the outside backs – increasingly outlandish.
If things go wrong, whether through indiscipline or injury, the chaos could compound. Perhaps not to the levels of mayhem seen when Italy picked flanker Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half at Twickenham in 2009, but more than enough to be exploited by a team as good as the All Blacks.
“It is not a 10-minute discussion, it is hours and hours,” said South Africa head coach Jacques Nienaber of how he and his backroom staff made their call.
The risk does not come without potential reward though. There is a big upside that has lured South Africa into leaving themselves so vulnerable.
Their strength in depth up front can squeeze the life out of opponents late on as they clear the bench and top up the on-pitch power.
Across three second halves of rugby against Ireland, France and England in this tournament, they have conceded just 15 points and no tries.
Whatever attacking gears New Zealand might have, they may not be enough to find a way clear of second-half quicksand that swallows up opposing set-piece, rhythm and momentum.
The suspicion is that New Zealand need to get out to a fast start; open up clear water on the scoreboard and leave the ‘finishers’ – as Eddie Jones liked to term them – with too much on their plates.
South Africa have conceded the first points in each of their past three matches.
Against France in the quarter-finals, a trio of smash-and-grab first-half tries, brilliantly seized, but set up by errors from the hosts, kept them from being blown away.
Against England in the semis, they left it dangerously late, making up a nine-point gap in the final 11 minutes.
New Zealand have been the most ruthless points-scoring machine in the tournament – returning with an average of almost four points from every incursion over the opposition 22m.
If they can keep up that hit-rate in the final and then hunker down and withstand the blast from the Bok bench, it may be them, rather than South Africa, that claims a record fourth World Cup.
“It would be good to take some gas out of that bomb, wouldn’t it?” agreed All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan as he contemplated the Springbok’s fabled ‘Bomb Squad’ replacements.
The pyrotechnics are unavoidable though. South Africa and New Zealand are two powerhouses who combine the ballistic and balletic to give this tournament the crescendo it deserves.
It hasn’t been a perfect World Cup. A bloated schedule that started in 32C summer heat and will finish in the sodden depths of autumn is first on World Rugby’s list of fixes.
But it has delivered drama by the bucketload.
Five of the six knockout matches so far have been in balance with the clock in the red, after a pool stage which delivered thrilling upsets and heavyweight clashes.
A finely balanced, blue-chip final, spiced with leftfield tactics, is a fitting final round.
Teams still warming up in a damp Paris. With the 3rd place play-off game on the same ground last night it was clear the ground was cutting up in places. Hope it won’t get worse and make things tricky tonight.
At half time last Sunday felt that whoever won that semi-final they could already get the engraver to INZ on the trophy and give the person the evening off. Seeing the Springboks team announcement on Thursday reinforced this opinion. Some folk calling the 7-1 split brave, I thought it was crazy. For me this split smacks of trying to accommodate some starting forwards who are not capable of playing flat out for 60 minutes, let alone 80, at this stage. It’s all very well for some to say if required Kwagga Smith could slot in the backline. BUT for me his huge impact off the bench is the energy he has brought to the forwards in the rucks and carrying up from the forwards position so if he ends up needing to come on and slot in on a wing they are losing a lot of his potential impact.
Anyway as unconfident have been about this one its full supporter mode time. GO BOKS!
Evening all, Handre has put 3 points on the board after a tricky start… Yellow card to the kiwis already!
Go Bokke 🙂
Evening Bullcot…. Remember to breathe 😉
Faf really should have had his roots done for the final!
Considering how his pelvis looked crushed 5 minutes ago, Kolbe has still got a good sprint in him!
That was a good phase…!! Boks looking dangerous for a while
Yeyy… Handre scores another penalty/
Mo’unga scores a AB penalty! 3 – 6
Pollard again…..! He could take Percys mantle!
Faf is fabulous, however he really does remind me of Miss Piggy!
Is it just me? 💡
3 – 9 Boks still leading in the 27th minute
Sam Cane a yellow for the skipper of the AB’s
Meanwhile Percy Montgmery is in Camps Bay at his favourite hotel watching the game sipping his own tipple, El Centurion tequila if Instagram is to be believed! 🙂
Cheers Percy
Oh dear, the skippers yellow card has been upgraded to a red!
His face is a picture
Pollard scores another penalty…. !! 🙂
Woo that was exciting… nearly an AB try
3 – 12 to the Boks in the 37th minute
Penalty scored for the AB’s
6 – 12 at halftime to South Africa
Blue Bird wrote:
Not easy Blue Bird, too close
Love these chats we have during the game!
Oh sorry, that was farkin years ago!
Blue Bird wrote:
Thanks for putting up the scores, too tense this side so focussing on the game.
Bullscot wrote:
Well HELLOOOO
Blue Bird wrote:
Is Percy Montgomery one of your favourites? 😆
Great quote from BOD “New Zealand have lacked penetration”!! 😳 😳 😳
Hope you are all having a good weekend Blue Bird and don’t have floods there. Lots of rain here the last few weeks will need to build an ark soon!
Blue Bird wrote:
😮 😯
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