It should be a 3-way fight between England, Ireland and Wales for the Six Nations title on Saturday, although France still have an outside chance.
The Top 3 are locked on 6 Points with 3 wins apiece, while England’s points difference of +37 puts them 1st, ahead of Ireland’s +33 and Wales’ +12.
France are 4th with 4 Points and a points difference of +22.
Philippe Saint-Andre’s side could still steal the title if Wales and Ireland lose and Les Bleus then beat England by a margin of 8 points or more, but it looks a remote possibility.
If teams are level on points, and match-points difference, then England are likely to win the Championship on tries scored, having crossed 11 times to Ireland’s 4 and Wales’ 5. In the highly unlikely event this was also level come Saturday night, the trophy would be shared.
Wales are in action 1st away to Italy in Rome (14:30 SA Time, 12:30 GMT), before Ireland take on Scotland at Murrayfield (16:30 SA Time, 14:30 GMT), ahead of England’s home match against France at Twickenham (19:00 SA Time, 17:00 GMT).
With the Six Nations wide open, we assess the 4 teams’ chances.
England vs France:
England are slight favourites and have the advantage of a superior points difference and playing last, so they will know what they have to do.
France might not be the ideal opposition for a title contender’s final match, but Les Bleus have been as frustrating and underwhelming as ever this year, losing to Ireland and Wales.
England, with lock Geoff Parling replacing Dave Attwood in their only change from the Scotland victory on 14 March, have not won the title since 2011 but, against an underachieving French side, will be hopeful of ending that wait.
The French have made 2 changes from the side that beat Italy, both enforced by injury, as Jules Plisson replaces Camille Lopez at flyhalf while Vincent Debaty starts at loosehead prop in place of Eddy Ben Arous.
England must beat France by a sufficient margin that if Ireland defeat Scotland, England’s current 4-point advantage over the Irish is not eroded – and that, of course, assumes Wales have not hammered Italy.
If the Irish and Welsh both lose their matches then the match at Twickenham effectively becomes a title decider.
Although England will be favourites, should both Wales and Ireland lose, then France could pull off the unlikeliest of title heists.
Wales vs Italy:
As they did in 2013, Wales have recovered from a poor start to haul themselves back into title contention.
An opening defeat by England dented confidence and shattered hopes of a 3rd Grand Slam under Warren Gatland but victories against Scotland, France and Ireland have given them a chance of lifting the Six Nations trophy again.
The odds are against Wales – they travel to Italy with the daunting task of having to win handsomely, knowing that even that might not be enough should Ireland beat Scotland or England win against France.
They need to win by at least 26 points to overtake England’s points difference (a 22-point victory is required to leapfrog Ireland) before the later games.
Italy’s away win against Scotland showed what a threat they can be, and they will only be stronger in Rome – all Wales can do is win big and hope other results go their way.
They make 2 changes to their starting 15 – Aaron Jarvis comes in at at tighthead and Rob Evans makes his first start at loosehead in place of the injured Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins.
Ireland vs Scotland:
Hopes of a Grand Slam may have evaporated in their defeat by Wales, but Ireland still have a strong chance of winning the title.
They are away against winless Scotland, and they will be aiming to pile more misery on Vern Cotter’s squad.
After losing to Wales, Irish confidence may be dented but against a Scotland team seemingly destined for the Wooden Spoon, they are still strong title contenders.
Ireland make 2 changes from the Wales defeat, as winger Luke Fitzgerald comes in for Simon Zebo and loosehead prop Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath.
They have the benefit of knowing what Wales will have done, but with England kicking off after they have finished, they may be hesitant about whether to stick or twist.
bbc
Cynical play Ireland at the ruck and its only a penalty straight in front for Scotland just outside the 22
Scotland 3/10 Ireland 18th min as Laidlaw gets it over
PENALTY SEND HIM OFF FOR THAT
WHERE IS THE CONSISTENCY THERE SCOTLAND PLAYER TAKEN OUT IN THE AIR JUST A PENALTY NO CARD, HOPE HE IS CITED AFTERWARDS
Green leave it the ref keeps shouting at the ruck
Penalty to Ireland as Scotland don’t release in the tackle, ball kicked out near halfway
Tim Visser having conceded that penalty makes way for Fife, Visser put in some strong runs in his short time on as blood replacement.
Good attacking play by Ireland, eventually caught into touch by the scrambling defence of Stuart Hogg.
Defensive lineout well taken by Gray deep in Scotland 22
Poor kick by Scotland don’t gain much ground, Ireland lineout now on Scotland 22
TRY SEAN O’BRIAN
Poor defence as Ireland through a long one, short pass to O’Brien who runs through unopposed for yet another text book move from the training ground
Scotland 3/17 Ireland, 27th min now, that was poor poor defence from Scotland
Sean O’Brien makes a lot of ground but Scotland steal it and break away
Frenetic play by both sides now.
Which team is the fittest, this kind of game will take its toll later in the game
Lineout on halfway to Ireland after a break in play and Scotland get a free kick that Denton carries up
Scotland close COME ON as they have advantage and FINN RUSSELL SCORES!!!!
Scotland 10/17 Ireland – Laidlaw converts, 32nd min
Ryan Grant off, replaced by Dickensen. That’s both starting props off already for Scotland, could be a telling factor later in 2nd half
Scrum penalty to Ireland, going for posts – 33rd min
Scotland 10/20 Ireland – 34th min, Sexton got penalty over
Scotland on the attack, poor passing costs them ground
Ref quick to blow as play slows down and its a scrum to Ireland deep in their 22
Hogg fumbles the ball before and over the line, scrum Ireland
Clever chip over the top by Russell gathered by Scott but then he loses it forward in trying to offload, Ireland scrum near their 22 line.
Halftime: Scotland 10/20 Ireland
Not going to get to see much of the 2nd half, COME ON SCOTLAND!
Fantastic Ireland…hope they do win the 6 Nations again, worthy Champions.
WOW, well done Ireland. A huge win which makes it very hard for England to win the title. Joe Schmidt is such a good coach will get the All Blacks job one day.
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