We are now entering the home stretch of the regular season of Super Rugby, and with over 94 matches played, and just 26 regular season fixtures remaining.
There are a maximum of 20 competition points available to eight teams, 15 for six franchises, while the Cheetahs have just two matches and ten points available, meaning they are at risk of claiming the wooden spoon.
With just eight points between the top six teams, 48 points looks to be the minimum qualifying mark.
But that of course could well change in the final month of the regular campaign.
sanzarrugby
And then there were nine
The Blues would need to win all of their remaining four matches, with plenty of bonus points to boot, to qualify for the Super Rugby Finals Series, and while this is not impossible, it does allow us to put a line through their chances – especially considering they are 18 points behind the ladder leading Sharks.
Just above Sir John Kirwan’s teams is a remarkable tale of the highs and lows that are part and parcel of Super Rugby.
The ninth placed Bulls are just three-points outside of the top six, their three straight wins in Pretoria have placed the three time champions on the verge of qualifying for their ninth and third straight final’s appearance.
Above them, the defending champion Chiefs have only won three of their last nine, while their rivals in last year’s final the Brumbies have lost three of their last four.
If the finals started tomorrow, the two teams that contested last year’s decider would be would not be featuring.
The Waratahs might be Australia’s great hope
Can the rugby faithful and diehard supporters throughout New South Wales finally be able to dream that their team could join the illustrious group of Super Rugby winners?
Could this be the year?
Sydney is perhaps the crucible of Australia’s rugby history, that is not to disrespect to the likes of the Reds or the Brumbies, the latter of which is the most successful Australian franchise, but the rugby population of New South Wales is the largest and are by all who reside and are passionate – overdue a Super Rugby title.
And now, 15 rounds into the season, they are second on the table.
The last time this happened the famous blue went all the way to the final, only to lose to the Crusaders who would claim their seventh, and most recent, championship in 2008.
The second most potent try scoring (37) attack so far may change history’s status quo.
Sharks the first obvious bet
Super Rugby has never been a kind contributor to bookmakers, and it hasn’t been easy so far this season to nominate a team that looks a fair chance to etch their name on the trophy.
Until now.
Three wins from four tour matches is a feat not even remotely achieved by any other South African team in 2014, and any initial murmurings about the Sharks ‘easy’ early run have been put aside after landmark victories in Christchurch and Auckland.
Less men?
No problem.
The Sharks strict and ruthless game, often running barely half the distance with the ball than their opposition, but gleefully kicking twice the amount – is the most belligerent calculator when squeezing the odds to their favour.
Home advantage during the finals will only further their odds.
Can those Hurricanes blow apart everyone?
If one match per season was to define a team’s title chances, then the Hurricanes remarkable demolition of the champions might be an important yardstick in the quest for Wellington’s first Super Rugby crown.
Tries, clean breaks, carries, metres, beaten defenders, and ruck success are all categories ruled by the Hurricanes, ample evidence on critical strike offensive ability.
The loss of Andre Taylor is a blow, but through that backline there is talent.
Julian Savea and Beauden Barrett would be almost automatic inclusions in most ‘competition’s XVs’, while the poise of Conrad Smith and Cory Jane is lending patience to the team’s efforts.
The Hurricanes pack needs to continue their efforts, there will be some fearsome frontal opposition as the season continues to peak.
But they are well positioned…
Which country will be next?
The opening of Super Rugby in 2014 saw the Australian Conference as competitive as we have ever seen, they won four of their first five against New Zealand teams, and were 7-3 against South African teams after Round 11.
Since then, Kiwi teams have established an impressive eight wins from ten matches against their trans-Tasman rivals, and lost only four from 16 to open their campaign against franchises from the Republic.
Now, South African teams, with six wins from their last eight against New Zealand and Australia outfits, are having their time in Super Rugby’s sun.
While this adds plenty of intrigue towards The Rugby Championship, which country will rule come Super Rugby Finals Series time?
Who gets home rights will be a major factor.
Only once has a final been won away (Crusaders in 2000), only seven times has a host team lost a Super Rugby playoff – and 48 times in 60 those with their own crowd yelling support have won during the knockout stages
ok boss, I am here.
what do I do now?
1 @ Charo:
Now for the other “numbnuts” to come join you here…
@ grootblousmile:
hey wie noem jy n lambal
@ grootblousmile:
you can cut and paste our discussion now 😀
@ Charo:
Hiyas Charo brudda, long farking time no see… 😀
5 @ Sharks_forever:
howzit boet.
still fighting the good fight I see. luckily it has been a bit easier this season against the usual lowlife (kidding boys!).
saw that rye is on here – need to buy the man a bells again.
@ Charo:
😆 yup Rye saw the light and joined.
The ryecatcher, mr holden caulfield himself?
8 @ MacroBull:
I have had the pleasure of sharing a few drinks and stories with the man.
a gentleman of note.
9 @ Charo:
I was just thinking he is either a huge fan of catching rye bread, or it is a word play on the famous novel. 😀
Not sure if anyone here reads Tony Johnson’s Articles on SuperSport.
I think his articles are of the best out there. So copied it from SS and will paste it here.
It is a good read.
====================================================================================
Accursed gap puts intriguing run on pause
by Tony Johnson 28/05/2014, 12:55
It’s a shame that just as Super Rugby is reaching a critical point a halt will be called for the June internationals.
It’s bad enough to have this break, even worse when neither England nor France will be sending their strongest teams down under for the start of their test series because of their club finals on the weekend of 31 May – 1 June.
There’s a lot of finger pointing in both directions, mainly over what defines the second weekend in June, the agreed start point for these tests each year. Apparently the Sanzar unions thought it was the 7th, the Northern Hemisphere unions thought it was the 14th.
Fact is they’ve known about it for three or four years and it’s just amazing to think that this wasn’t all dealt with a long time ago.
The logical answer would be to start the mid-year test programme later in June, allowing both Super Rugby and the European club programmes to be finished beforehand. Apparently England and France were open to this, but the others, notably Wales, weren’t, so it’s not going to happen.
To be fair you can understand why the Northern Hemisphere clubs who control the players don’t want them playing into July, and we in the Southern Hemisphere don’t want Super Rugby starting any earlier so we have yet another impasse and the prospects of a truly globally-aligned season structure are as remote as they have ever been.
The break has never been good for Super Rugby, and as well as potentially killing momentum, it’ll be an anxious time for Super Rugby coaches hoping their key players don’t get hurt.
I don’t know that the Sharks will be too concerned though. Their win over the Blues was massively important, because they have played one more game than some of the chasing pack, and they needed the points buffer.
It was the most significant result of a huge weekend that to me showcased everything that is good about Super Rugby….the contrasting styles between the three nations, the tension and niggle of the derby matches, some exhilarating attack, tremendous defence and as good a finish to a match as you could hope to see.
The tremendous defence accolade belongs to the Sharks, who again showed their ability to man the barricades with players in the bin, but also the ability to control a game, especially from in front.
The Sharks have copped criticism, most notably after the match with the Brumbies, over the narrow confines of their tactical plan, but to my mind what has made them an outstanding and successful team this season is that they know their strengths, focus on them, and play smart.
The OPTA stats we are provided with show that the Sharks kick the ball more than any other team in Super Rugby, mainly to gain territory, but also, prove that opposing teams kick the ball a lot more when they are playing the Sharks. In other words, they have the ability to draw teams into a game of their liking.
On Friday they met a Blues team that have plenty of talent, but were not at all smart. Everyone knew that after the recent uproar over jersey pulling and holding back the referees would be vigilant over this, and yet twice at crucial times of the game, immediately after the Blues had scored to close within striking distance, they gave away kickable penalties for that very offence allowing the Sharks to restore their advantage.
Again the Sharks had to play shorthanded after conceding repeat penalties in their own 22, but so good is their defensive structure and so fierce is their resolve that they again managed it.
People often criticise the All Blacks for giving away penalties inside their red zone….let’s face it such criticisms are rarely aimed at losing teams….but while not condoning deliberate infringements, I do think there are times when it is just a case of weighing up the risks. That’s a harsh reality of professional sport and the best teams are usually the smartest teams.
In the end the Sharks achieved another thoroughly deserved win and went home in a prime position to kick on to their first title.
Two guys that have really stood out for me on the tour have been the halves. Frans Steyn may be a more natural fit in midfield or fullback these days, but if I’m not mistaken he did start out his career at ten, and with injuries to Lambie and co he has stepped into the pivot role and controlled the territorial game with his booming boot.
Cobus Reinach has been fantastic, buzzing around on attack, and making a lot of tackles. His searing pace should be no surprise to anyone who saw his father play, and this has allowed him to score two important opportunist tries. I also thought the defence of Paul Jordaan was tremendous.
The best game of the weekend, quite possibly the entire season came at Dunedin, where the roofed stadium allowed the Crusaders and Highlanders to play out a match of sublime quality while a storm was raging outside.
There was a storm of protest from Highlander fans over the TMO call at the end of the game but Vinny Munro got it right in ruling that a ball grounded simultaneously on the touchline and goal-line is out.
It provided some great drama at the end of a pulsating match, one that pushed the Crusaders up into top of the New Zealand conference ahead of a big clash with the season’s surprise team, the Force, this coming weekend.
Apart from the Sharks putting some ground on the chasing pack, the table got another shake-up. It seems to be changing on every game right now, so, and that is a fantastic reflection of the tight competition.
The biggest victims of the upheaval in the past couple of weeks are last year’s finalists.
The Chiefs and Brumbies were both torched at the weekend, the Chiefs in an exhilarating performance by the Hurricanes, the Brumbies succumbing to the awesome power of the Bulls, and both have not only fallen out of the top spot in their conference, but the top six altogether.
The Brumbies face both the Waratahs and Force over the last three weeks (with that accursed one month gap between the games) and it’s those matches that carry the fate of the Aussie conference. I can’t see all three of them getting through, but they will almost certainly get two, a reflection of a much tougher Aussie conference this year.
It’s even tighter in a New Zealand conference that has accumulated the most wins and the most log points of the three, but ultimately its strength will make it harder to get multiple teams into the playoffs.
As for the South African group, well to me the Sharks only need one more win to guarantee top spot in the conference and two will almost certainly be enough to secure top spot for the playoffs. The Cheetahs, Stormers and Lions are out of contention, but I said several weeks ago I thought the Bulls could still make it and I haven’t changed my thinking.
Their last three games all look winnable, with the trip to Cape Town the crucial match. They will have to win all three, and if they do and pick up a bonus point or two I reckon they could sneak in, because their rivals in the chasing pack have got games against each other to come.
At a stab, I’ll go for the Sharks to finish top, Crusaders second, with the Waratahs claiming the Aussie conference, leaving the Chiefs, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Force, Brumbies and Bulls to fight for three spots. It’s worth noting the Hurricanes, Bulls and Brumbies only have three games left, which won’t help their cause, but frankly I would not want to put money on which three miss out.
We’re in for an intriguing run in, although it would be even better if it was all being played out in consecutive weeks.
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